Nigeria’s economic activity in the first quarter of 2026 has continued to show a pattern that has now become familiar in recent years — moderate growth supported more by non-oil performance than crude oil output, even as inflationary pressure and cost of living concerns remain in the background of daily life.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says the country’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2026, reflecting a slight slowdown compared to the 4.07 per cent recorded in the final quarter of 2025.
The figure still signals expansion, but it also highlights how fragile momentum remains in Africa’s largest economy, where growth trends have often fluctuated alongside policy shifts, oil production changes, and global market conditions.
“Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed to 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026,” the National Bureau of Statistics said in its latest report.
Behind the headline number, sector performance paints a more layered picture of the economy.
Agriculture recorded 3.15 per cent growth during the period, improving from the near-flat performance seen a year earlier, while industry grew by 3.50 per cent and services expanded by 4.31 per cent, remaining the largest contributor to overall output.
Services alone accounted for about 57.73 per cent of total GDP, reinforcing how much Nigeria’s economic structure continues to lean toward telecommunications, trade, finance, and informal service activity rather than manufacturing-heavy expansion.
Oil production also played its part, though in a more limited way than in earlier decades when crude output dominated national revenue.
Average daily oil production stood at about 1.55 million barrels per day in the quarter, slightly below previous periods, reflecting ongoing volatility in output levels and operational constraints across key fields. Non-oil activity, however, remained the main driver of growth at over 96 per cent contribution to real GDP, underlining a structural shift that has been gradually deepening over time.
In nominal terms, the economy expanded significantly, with GDP reaching over N110 trillion during the quarter, according to the statistical office, reflecting both real growth and price level effects within the economy.
The latest figures also come against a broader economic backdrop shaped by recent reforms, including foreign exchange adjustments and subsidy removal policies that have altered pricing systems across fuel, transport, and production chains.
Those reforms have been credited by some analysts with improving external stability, even as households continue to feel pressure from rising costs in food, energy, and basic services.
“The services sector retained its position as the largest contributor to the economy,” the NBS noted, highlighting its continued dominance in Nigeria’s output structure.
Economic observers say the steady but uneven growth pattern reflects a transition phase rather than a sharp expansion cycle, where productivity gains in certain sectors are offset by structural constraints in others.
Agriculture’s moderate improvement is also being closely watched, especially given its importance for employment and food security across rural and semi urban communities.
Still, challenges remain visible beneath the surface of the growth data.
Inflation pressures, exchange rate fluctuations, and infrastructure gaps continue to influence business decisions and household spending, limiting how strongly GDP growth translates into improved living standards.
International projections have suggested Nigeria’s growth could hover around the mid 3 to 4 per cent range in the near term, depending on oil output stability and continued non-oil sector resilience.
For now, the Q1 2026 numbers present a familiar economic reality — steady expansion, driven mostly by services and non-oil activity, but still constrained by structural weaknesses that continue to shape the pace of recovery.
And as policymakers interpret the latest figures, the broader question remains whether this pattern of moderate growth can eventually translate into more visible improvements in everyday economic conditions for millions of Nigerians.
